Theoretical entree, practical dessert

Recent interest in the theoretical background of Foresight Styles Assessment has lead to a paper soon to be published by the Journal of Futures Studies titled Foresight Styles Assessment: A theory based study in foresight competency and change.

For Certified Consultants who use FSA in their consulting or coaching, insight into our "entree" (some light theory) might be useful in working with clients. For "dessert" practical suggestions are offered.

The intentions of FSA are the same as for most assessments, allow for wide divergence in clients' views, attitudes, values, and behaviors, recognize the diversity with which they and their colleagues face change and aid clients in choosing approaches to change that consider both short and long term aspects.

Background

FS has its background in Innovation Diffusion research or how new ideas become integrated into a wider population. It is a scale from non-acceptance to quick adaption of the new. It is not just how we accept what's new, but has to do with the origin of the new idea and how each different adaption style affects long and short range results. When economic, climate, ecologic and energy questions fight for our attention and energy, the long-range and the short range come into perspective in a new light.

A number of assumptions that influenced the foresight theory are:

individuals have a greater affinity for and can be placed upon a temporal spectrum of past - present - future,

individuals think from analytic or holistic paradigms,

individuals have a greater or lesser affinity for activity as described by the continuum for instinctual behavior, development directed behavior or action oriented behavior,

individuals have a greater or lesser need for structure.

Evolutionary development has endowed Homo sapiens with genetic and physiological capabilities that allow them to do what no other animals can; form their future.

Holistic thinking is summarized as a spectrum, from the ability to see the larger picture with all its messy detail: holistic causality, everything-is-connected and a an attitude of contradictions that can see some validity in both sides. The locus of holistic thinking is the whole. Analytic thinking is described as slow, deliberative and conscious, rational analysis and discussion with locus of attention on the parts. Researchers from Eastern cultures refer to their research as holistic and Western researchers tend to use Duel Process and their term of choice.

The temporal aspect of FSA has to do with ones orientation or alignment to the past, the present or the future. It does not mean that the individual lives totally in one of these time zones, but find one or the other a comfort zone.

Under propensity to action there are two concepts. Being, becoming and doing describe the activity relationship we have to our total environment. We can be accepting within our environment, living instinctually with a certain amount of “flow” as Csikszentmihalyi describes it. We can understand the workings, patterns and systemic connections in our environment, or we can take action in order to bring about change. The being, becoming and doing continuum influences how each of the styles individualize themselves.

The other individualization influence is in the varying degree of personal need for structure which enables us to make sense of the world, to form and maintain a clear perception of our personal and work lives. A high personal need for structure implies a need for information and rules about the topic at hand and appears to correlate with a fear of lack of validity, cogency or acceptance by the larger group. In addition, when confronted with a proposed change, a personal need for structure can include a need to know what to expect, the need to maintain a daily routine, the fear of unpredictable situations and people, unclear and new rules, activities and expectations.

Paractical Tips

When using FSA with client groups or individuals, one can discuss need for or lack of need of structure, propensity to action, holistic or analytic thinking and temporal orientation. First, talk to yourself about your stance on these four orientations. Consider that your orientation will draw you to clients that have similar orientations and initiate a certain amount of judgment against those who do not. Bon appitit!

A Place of Creativity and of Holistic Foresight

Recently, in writing about Foresight Styles Assessment, I have spent a lot of time explaining why the "Futurist" style differs quantitatively from most of the other five styles which have their own personalities, but are relatable to the massive and statistically validated body of research known as Innovation Diffusion. I am convinced that there is a place of creativity and of holistic foresight that comes together within us that is a part of a genetic gift that we all have to varying degrees. I am convinced that how we relate to the future is highly influenced by that genetic gift.

Evolutionary scientists are learning more every day about the development of our brains. The order of the brains development has been established for decades now. We are just beginning to learn about things like plasticity, the way culture and behavior shape the brain, the way past memories influence what we can imagine the future to be. We are also learning how genetics influences what our brains can be and what they can and cannot do.

Another of the styles that doesn't fit into the innovation diffusion scheme is the "Opportunist". It may feel as if the parts of us that live in the present, that look for what will enhance our lives here and now, the parts that, in our materialistic, achieving society tempt our values towards gain for fame's sake are totally negative. Yet, we see many examples of opportunistic behavior every day and we act on opportunities that we would regret if we didn't take them. Opportunism represents more than just the speed with which we accept an innovation. It goes to the motivation behind our need to live in the present, to use whatever comes along to enhance our survival now without regard to a future time. This is also a part of our brain's architecture. It speaks to survival, at the reptilian brain level, but also in other parts of our brain. If lying will get a hug, praise, acceptance or acknowledgement and those qualities are missing from our lives; naturally we will take the opportunistic road and leave thoughts of the future for others.

That opportunistic behavior can also be of value in a change process was something I came to slowly. As Maslow put it, there is a certain hierarchy of needs and survival is the bottom line. An organization, in which I am a member, recently was on the brink of extinction. It was very hard for the membership (largely academic and all working with some aspect of the future) to keep straight what were the "Opportunist" actions and "Futurist" actions. Fortunately, the group had one person who understood the difference and was willing to take charge.

It feels presumptuous to offer a model of change that is tangent to such a well developed concept as Innovation Diffusion. I still feel strongly that FSA is a more holistic view of change. It can be used to fulfill our need for understanding and learning. FSA can be used as a way to grow ourselves, our communities and our organizations. It is integral to understanding the present and creating the future.